Active conditions — watch the sun

428 km/s, glancing blow (17° outside cone) — arrival in ~97 h, expected Kp ≈ 1.6 (none).

Faint CME first seen to the NW by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-09-11T17:12Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 in later frames. This CME is too faint to be seen in STEREO A COR2 and is obscured by the pylon in GOES CCOR-1. The source of this event is faint field line movement seen beyond the NW limb in SDO AIA 171 beginning at approx. 2026-09-11T15:48Z.

744 km/s, glancing blow (16° outside cone) — arrival in ~60 h, expected Kp ≈ 2.5 (none).

CME first seen to the E in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2026-09-14T11:08Z. It is also seen to the W in GOES CCOR-1. This CME is covered by a data gap in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 in real time. The source of this CME is an eruption centered around AR 14528 (S11W38) best seen in GOES SUVI 284 beginning around 2026-09-14T10:00Z. Field line movement can be seen accompanied by brightening and ejecta. Post-eruptive arcades can also be seen in SDO AIA 193. There seems to be a northwestward deflection from the location of the source. There are two large coronal holes (a northern and a southern one) nearby, possibly responsible for this deflection.

1305 km/s, glancing blow (16° outside cone) — arrival in ~38 h, expected Kp ≈ 3.8 (glancing).

CME first seen to the West by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-09-13T19:48Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1. This CME is not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap beginning at 2026-09-13T19:23Z. The source of this event is a center disk filament eruption beginning at approx. 2026-09-13T18:48Z best seen in SDO AIA and STEREO A COR2 304, centered at approx. S10W10. This filament appears to be deflected towards the NW, which is supported by dimming seen moving towards the NW, expanding to approx. N10W30 as seen in SDO AIA 193. This eruption is close to a large coronal hole which may contribute to the deflection.

645 km/s, glancing blow (17° outside cone) — arrival in ~68 h, expected Kp ≈ 2.1 (none).

Faint CME first seen to the West by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-09-13T21:12Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This event is not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap which began at 2026-09-13T19:23Z. The source of this CME is likely outflow following an earlier filament eruption beginning at 2026-09-13T18:48Z centered at approx. S10W10 as seen in SDO AIA 193 and 304. This CME is likely deflected to the NW due to proximity to a large coronal hole.

404 km/s, glancing blow (20° outside cone) — arrival in ~103 h, expected Kp ≈ 1.4 (none).

CME seen to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The CME is not clearly visible in STEREO A COR2. The CME is not seen in GOES CCOR-1 imagery due to Earthshine. The source is not clear.

295 km/s, glancing blow (23° outside cone) — arrival in ~141 h, expected Kp ≈ 1.0 (none).

CME first seen to the W in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2026-09-13T10:23Z and fades before leaving the FOV of STEREO A COR2. This feature is not see in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 or in GOES CCOR-1. The source is likely related to field line movement seen beyond the WNW limb in STA EUVI 195 beginning after 2026-09-13T08:00Z.