All quiet on the space-weather front
No storms, no notable flares. Aurora limited to the highest latitudes.
Peak 24h · C2.5
Quiet
9.2 p/cm³ · Moderate
Solar X-ray flux
6 h · GOES long channel
Kp forecast
Next 72 h · NOAA predicted
Coronal mass ejections
- No impactS12W20Launched 1d ago
416 km/s, direct hit — arrival in ~100 h, expected Kp ≈ 2.4 (none).
Narrow CME seen to the southeast in STEREO A COR2A and very dimly to the due south in SOHO LASCO C2 which is likely associated with an eruption in AR 14464 near S12W20 around 2026-06-12T13:50Z seen best in SDO AIA composite imagery using the sum of 211/193/171 Angstrom imagers.
Chance89%Speed416 km/sArrives4d - ModerateN00W30Launched 1d ago
977 km/s, direct hit — arrival in ~48 h, expected Kp ≈ 4.7 (moderate).
Faint partial halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 with preference to the east and seen more narrow with a brighter bulk and disconnected bulk/shock in STEREO Ahead COR2A with brighter bulk to the east-northeast and shock extending from the southeast to the north in association with a filament eruption near N00E35 erupting near 2026-06-12T16:15Z, best seen in SDO AIA composite imagery using the sum of 211/193/171 Angstroms and as well in GOES SUVI/SDO AIA 304 Angstroms. This CME, seen due east and northeast in COR2A, is seen overlapping the previous CME: 2026-06-12T15:38Z which is seen to the southeast and which is a separate eruption.
Chance77%Speed977 km/sArrives48h - GlancingN09E39Launched 3d ago
885 km/s, near-direct hit — arrival in ~52 h, expected Kp ≈ 3.9 (glancing).
Bright loop CME and shock first seen to the Northeast by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-06-11T00:36Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3, STEREO A COR2 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this CME is a long duration C6.7 class flare from Active Region 14465 (N09E39) seen peaking at 2026-06-11T00:02Z. This flare can be seen in SDO AIA 131 along with a wide region of dimming, field line opening and an EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284.
Chance60%Speed885 km/sArrives2d - No impactS21W19Launched 4d ago
348 km/s, near-direct hit — arrival in ~119 h, expected Kp ≈ 1.7 (none).
CME first seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2026-06-09T21:36Z. It is also seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 but is covered by a real-time data gap in STEREO A COR2. The is most likely an eruption from AR 14461 (S21W19) that appears to be heavily deflected southward likely due its proximity to a coronal hole that was centered around N00W05. The eruption is best seen in SDO AIA 193 as moving field lines and a large area of dimming directed toward the south. The eruption is also accompanied by C2.3 class flare from AR 14461 that peaked at 2026-06-09T19:18Z best seen in SDO AIA 131. In coronagraphs, this CME partially overlaps with far-sided CME: 2026-06-09T21:12Z.
Chance54%Speed348 km/sArrives5d - No impactS25W32Launched 2d ago
293 km/s, glancing blow (10° outside cone) — arrival in ~142 h, expected Kp ≈ 1.3 (none).
Faint CME observed to the E only in STEREO A COR2. The source is likely dimming in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2026-06-11T08:48Z centered around S25W32.
Chance33%Speed293 km/sArrives6d - No impactS21W68Launched 11h ago
649 km/s, glancing blow (32° outside cone) — arrival in ~68 h, expected Kp ≈ 2.0 (none).
CME first seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2 stating at 2026-06-13T13:26Z. It is also seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and to the S in STEREO A COR2. The majority of this CME was missed by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 in real time due to a data gap between downlink periods. The source of this CME is a large eruption in across the far SE portion of the Earth-facing disk centered around AR 14461 (S21W68). The eruption is best seen in SDO AIA 193 as wide opening field lines accompanied by dimming and an EUVI wave beginning around 2026-06-13T12:36Z. This CME is also associated with a C2.5 class flare from AR 14461 which peaked at 2026-06-13T13:09Z. The flare is best seen in SDO AIA 131.
Chance9%Speed649 km/sArrives3d
Satellite drag (LEO)
Elevated drag
Mild thermospheric heating. Drag is slightly above baseline — operators may schedule small reboost burns.
Impact
- Affected altitudesNoticeable below ~500 km.
- ISSRoutine; may consume slightly more reboost propellant.
- LEO constellationsDecay ~10–20% above baseline.
What this means for you
Plain-language impact for the people who care.
GPS users
Sub-meter accuracy as usual.
Quiet ionosphere. High-precision survey GPS works at full accuracy.
Aviation (polar routes)
Polar HF and GPS are operating normally.
No advisory in effect for trans-polar flights.
Amateur radio (HF)
HF propagation conditions normal.
No advisories. Propagation determined by season + time of day as usual.
Power grid
No grid stress.
Geomagnetic activity is too low to induce significant currents in long transmission lines.
Aurora visibility
Aurora confined to the polar regions.
Only Alaska, northern Canada, Scandinavia and similar latitudes have a chance tonight.
Notable space weather events
Major storms and flares 1997–present
X7.1 flare — Solar Cycle 25 continues intensifying
Another major flare as Solar Cycle 25 approaches its maximum. R3 radio blackout on the daylit hemisphere.
X8.7 flare — largest of Solar Cycle 25
From the same active region AR3664 that caused the May superstorm. Strongest flare in the current solar cycle.
May 2024 Superstorm — G5 extreme
Strongest geomagnetic storm since 2003. Kp=9 for multiple periods. Aurora photographed from Mexico, India, and the Caribbean. Multiple X-class flares from region AR3664.
Geomagnetic storm destroys 40 Starlink satellites
A minor G1 storm increased thermospheric density enough to drag down 40 newly-launched Starlink satellites that hadn't yet raised their orbits. Cost: ~$50 million.
X9.3 flare — strongest in 12 years
Most powerful flare of Solar Cycle 24. Caused R3 radio blackout and was followed by a CME that produced a G4 storm on September 8.
St. Patrick's Day Storm — G4 severe
Strongest geomagnetic storm of Solar Cycle 24. Kp=8. Aurora visible across much of the United States and Europe.
New to space weather?
Quick definitions for the terms on this page
New to space weather?
Quick definitions for the terms on this page
- Kp index
- Geomagnetic disturbance 0–9. 5+ is storm-level.
- Flare class
- A→X, each 10× stronger. M/X can disrupt radio.
- Solar wind
- Plasma speed from the sun. >500 km/s drives aurora.
- R-scale
- Radio blackout level (R1–R5), triggered by M+ flares.
